Note. (i.p.) means including previews.

The most anticipated battle this year finally comes to light as Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows dukes it out against Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol. What makes this battle even more exciting is that Hong Kong is one of only a couple of territories that is showing both films the same week and it will also act as a precursor for the rest of the Asian territories. While both have gradual rollouts, Hong Kong will be the first to experience the growing grudge match between the two films and their distributors.

Getting right to it, Sherlock Holmes 2 has so far outperformed Mission Impossible 4 in ticket sales and beaten MI4 in about 70% of the locations. If you disregard the Wednesday previews, Mission Impossible only has a slight lead on Thursday before Sherlock Holmes overtakes it on Friday and through the weekend. There are outliers, however, and Mission Impossible will need these theaters to perform even better than it has been currently.

Scheduling has Mission Impossible 4 in the biggest screens through Friday. Sherlock Holmes takes the next 2 or 3 biggest screens but not before Mission Impossible adds a smaller screen to go along with the biggest screen. There is a bit of uncertainty as a number of theatres have not posted their full Thursday schedules yet. Mission Impossible 4 has been getting heavy promotion over Sherlock Holmes 2 so it getting the big screens is not a surprise nor is it a concern for Sherlock. If Mission Impossible continues to drag along slowly then Sherlock Holmes will get the biggest screens on the weekend.

Other factors like IMAX and the 4D screen is huge for Mission Impossible. Sherlock Holmes is not showing in these theatres and it will be a significant boost for Mission Impossible. IMAX, in particular, has shown considerable strength and is already 40-60% full at peak showtimes with still a few days to go. With Happy Feet 2 showing in IMAX next week, this could accelerate demand for Mission Impossible this weekend.

The strong start along with the Wednesday previews factored in will give Sherlock Holmes the victory by a slight margin. Although it was tempting to put one film above 2m, 2m for a non-3D release is hard to achieve here when only a handful of films have done it and especially difficult with formidable competition. The last few weeks have been quiet though so it should propel both Sherlock and Impossible to larger than expected weekends just before the Christmas break. Opening ultra wide, Sherlock Holmes will lead off with about $1.8m, good enough for the win and almost double the predecessor’s OW. Mission Impossible will take in about 1.65m also with an ultra wide release, less than the 2m that MI3 started off with but well ahead of Tom Cruise’s last action pic, Knight and Day.

3 Idiots will hold on to its screens the best so a drop of about 50% can be expected. It should be able to achieve the best drop of this weekend with favourable scheduling in its back pocket. It has gotten some admissions even with unfavourable showtimes so that is a good sign. A $40,000 weekend puts it right at 2.75m.

You Are the Apple of My Eye is creeping along towards Kung Fu Hustle but it will need an exceptional hold to keep it in theaters as the two action movies have taken the majority of screens leaving everyone else to pick up the pieces or get cut. Its hold won’t be anything special but it should do better than most of the other holdovers. $30,000 will give it 7.75m.

Arthur Christmas enjoyed a pretty good hold last weekend so it’s being kept over Tintin. Fifth spot won’t be easy but with 3D prices and the Christmas theme, it could sneak past other films like White Vengeance, Magic to Win and the aforementioned The Adventures of Tintin for it.

Tintin will be a major casualty as the loss of screens will bury it with the rest of the carnage. -85% is a possibility.

Magic to Win and White Vengeance should have OK holds being Chinese films. 60-70% drop seems likely.

After poor openings, The Nutcracker and Sector 7 will be gone from theaters.

For more information about this week or any other, visit this thread. - http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=58584&start=350