This weekend at the box-office has shown us that it doesn’t matter much when the movies are released. As long as the marketing is good and the movies appeal to different segments of audiences, several successful movies can be released on the same weekend even in September. We’ve had many successful movies coming out in September over the recent few years, but this weekend has become the biggest box-office weekend ever in September and the first one on which the Top 12 grossed more than $100 million. The $109.1 million cume was up a great 26.4% from the last frame and 20.1% from the same weekend last year when Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps opened on top.
In a surprise move, The Lion King re-release managed to withstand the onslaught of three more or less successful new wide releases and held on to the top spot for the second weekend in a row. The family classic made $22.1 million over the weekend, going down only 26.6% for a running total of $61.7 million. Its lifetime domestic gross now stands at $390.2 million as it easily passed Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2, Return of the King and Star Wars: Revenge on the Sith on the all-time domestic chart. It’s currently the 12th-biggest domestic release ever, with its sight firmly set at the Top 10.
While its $30+ million opening was already amazing last weekend, its terrific hold is just unprecedented for a re-release in any recent times. Even the hugely successful Star Wars: A New Hope re-issue in 1997 declined over 30% in its second weekend, whereas the Toy Story/Toy Story 2 combo went down 37.8% in its second weekend last year. It becomes even moreso impressive if you consider that one of this weekend’s successful new films was also a 3D family-oriented film, putting it in direct competition to The Lion King. It looks like the family audiences has really been starved for new movies, but also that the classic’s WoM keeps carrying it. It’ll be very interesting to see, however, what kind of an effect the DVD/BluRay release will do to its theatrical business this upcoming week. So far the film has defied expectations, but availability on home video should cut its legs short. Nevertheless, it still has a great chance at $100 million and either way this re-release is one of the year’s biggest positive box-office surprises. Currently I expect it to end up with $105-110 million in the bank, boosting its lifetime gross above $430 million. In fact, it actually has a shot at beating Shrek 2 to (once again) become the highest-grossing animated movie ever and enter the domestic all-time Top 5.
Entering the Top 12 at #2, Moneyball opened to $20.6 million from 2,993 theatres for a per-theatre-average of $6,883. The Brad Pitt vehicle that adapted the true story of Bîlly Beane, the manager of Oakland Athletics and his sabremetric approach to assembling a competitive and affordable baseball team is considered as one of the year’s bigger Academy Awards contenders and opened to stellar reviews. The $20+ million opening is great for a film like this, making it the biggest opening weekend ever for a baseball-themed film and already the 18th-highest grossing baseball film domestically. On top of that, it’s the 5th-biggest opening weekend for any sports drama. It’s also another success for Brad Pitt who once again proves himself to be one of the bigger draws of our times. Moneyball is his 15th live action #1 movie and his 10th $20+ million opening. We’ll definitely see this movie hanging around for a while to come as well-received sports movies tend to develop terrific legs. Examples include The Blind Side, The Rookie and Remember the Titans (also a September release). As it should pick up serious awards buzz in a couple of months it should find itself with a total gross around $90-105 million.
Settling for the third spot this weekend, WB’s Dolphin Tale took in $20.3 million from 3,507 venues for a $5,777 PTA. It’s quite incredible that a $20+ million opener in September can’t make it to #1, let alone break into the Top 2, but that just goes on to show this weekend’s strength. Dolphin Tale is the completely new family-oriented movie since Spy Kids: Al the Time in the World (as The Lion King is a re-release of an older film). That certainly helped its opening along with great reviews and the 3D boost. The movie managed to score the rare A+ grade from CinemaScore which means that there are still great things to come. There are no other 3D releases until The Three Musketeers on September 21st and no real family-oriented movies until Puss in Boots on November 4th. In other words, there’s pretty much nothing in its way to developing great legs and becoming one of this fall’s biggest movies as it should end up with $95-110 million.
Opening at #4, Taylor Lautner’s vehicle outside of the Twilight franchise, Abduction, made $11.2 million over the weekend. The movie averaged $3,592 from 3,118 theatres. It’s a fairly solid opening for the movie that received a true lashing by the critics (currently standing at 3% at RottenTomatoes.com). It goes on to show, however, that having starred in a very popular franchise doesn’t automatically make you a big draw on your own. Certainly, the movie would have started even lower without Lautner, but it still opened somewhat below expectations. With likely frontloading due to Twilight fans and probably average word-of-mouth, the movie won’t last long in theatres and should finish with $28-30 million.
Open Road Films’ first release, Killer Elite, bowed to $9.5 million from 2,986 theatres ($3,182 PTA) at the 5th spot despite a strong cast consisting of Jason Statham, Clive Owen and Robert De Niro. While there is not much direct competition coming up, the film should be naturally frontloaded and doesn’t look to have great WoM to boot. It should find its way to a $24 million total which is in the range where most Statham films seem to be ending up nowadays (he already has seven movies that made $22-32 million).
The all-star thriller Contagion slipped four spots to #2 this weekend. It grossed $8.6 million (down 41.1%) bringing its total gross to $57.1 million after 17 days. It is currently tracking around $7 million behind last year’s September thriller hit The Town. Overall the film has showcased good legs so far and with its adult appeal, good reviews and strong cast it should stay on the radar for a while. It will go on to finish with $78 million when all is said and done.
Losing 49.1% of its audiences last weekend’s acclaimed release Drive dipped to the 7th spot of the box-office this weekend. The arthouse action-thriller made $5.8 million over the three-day frame and now stands at $21.4 million. Given its $15 million budget the film is a certified success for FilmDistrict. However, with many movies being released over the next two weeks it’ll surely start losing theatres pretty fast as its PTA is far from great and WoM seems to be mixed. It’ll wind up with $33 million in the bank, making it the second hit for Ryan Gosling this year (with The Ides of March still to come in two weeks).
The Help is still doing really well. In its seventh week now, the bestseller adaptation dropped just 32.4% to $4.4 million (second-best drop in the Top 12) and the 8th spot of the charts. Its running total is now $154.4 million as it is getting close to enter the all-time Top 200 domestically. The movie is a gigantic hit and I don’t think we’ve seen the last of it. This should play well into the awards season and I wouldn’t be surprised by a re-expansion at some point in December or January. Therefore, I still see it making it to $175 million in total.
Delivering the worst hold in the Top 12, Straw Dogs decreased 59%, making $2.1 million for a pitiful $8.9 million total. With four wide releases next weekend, it should lose many theatres and never recover, ending up with $12 million.
I Don’t Know How She Does It rounded off the Top 10 with $2.1 million (down 53.4%). Its total stands at $8 million. Being the movie with the worst per-theatre-average in the Top 12 it is also unlikely to keep its screens for long and should finish with around $12 million as well.
Focus Features’ thriller The Debt dropped out of the Top 10 with a $1.3 million gross this weekend (down 56.2%) for a running cume of $29 million after four weeks. It doesn’t have much gas left in the tank and adult-oriented films like The Ides of March will soon make forget about it. It will leave the theatres with a solid $32 million in its pockets.
In a very surprising turn of events, Kevin Hart: Laugh at My Pain entered the Top 12 at #12 in its third weekend. The stand-up comedy concert movie added another 57 theatres this weekend, bringing the total theatres count to 287 and made $1.1 million (down just 0.6%) for a total of $5.2 million. It has already become the most successful movie of this kind since Martin Lawrence’s Runteldat in 2002.and should end up with $8-10 million, depending on how far the expansion will go from now on.