The summer box-office season is over. As usual, the post-Labor Day weekend became the lowest-grossing weekend of the year thus far. One would have to go back all the way to 2007 to see the lowest-grossing weekend of the year not being the post-Labor Day weekend (and even then, it was the weekend after that and edged it out by less than $1 million). Similar to the post-Thanksgiving weekend the post-Labor Day weekend has become a dumping ground for studios with movies like Dickie Roberts, Bangkok Dangerous and Swimfan opening on that weekend in the past. However, smart decisions by studios allowed some large openings on that weekend as well as The Exorcism of Emily Rose proved back in 2005 when it got out of the gate with a $30 million start. Usually the weekend sees releases of critically-panned movies. However, this weekend two very well-received movies hit the screens – the MMA drama Warrior and Stephen Soderbergh’s high-profile thriller Contagion. While one of the films disappointed despite its high acclaim, the other lived up to the box-office expectations. Overall the Top 12 grossed $66.4 million this weekend, down 19.4% from last weekend and up less than 1% from the same frame last year when Resident Evil: Afterlife opened at the top of the charts.
As mentioned above, Contagion easily took the top spot, earning almost three times as much as its next competitor. The realistic virus outbreak thriller sporting an all-star cast including Jude Law, Marion Cotillard, Kate Winslet and Matt Damon made $23.1 million from 3,222 theatres which include 257 IMAX screens. That gave the film a solid per-theatre-average of $7,180. The opening is in line with other fall thrillers openings like The Town’s ($23.8 million), Flightplan ($24.6 million) and The Departed ($26.9 million). The thriller has earned a rather unimpressive CinemaScore of “B-“, but I don’t think it’ll affect its run much. Being the only major adult-oriented thriller will propel the film’s legs. Remember Soderbergh’s The Informant! which managed a multiplier of well above 3 despite a CinemaScore of “C”. That’s the least Contagion should be able to pull off. However, I expect the IMAX screens and its high-profile status (thanks to its all-star cast) to boost its longevity even more. It should end up somewhere around $80-90 million, becoming Soderbergh’s third-biggest movie outside of the Ocean’s franchise.
Relinquishing its top spot to Contagion in its fifth week, the breakout success The Help dropped 40.5% (second-best hold in the Top 12). To $8.7 million, bringing its total to $137.1 million as its theatre count increased once again by 92 theatres pushing it to a total of 2,935 venues. The film’s success is incredible, but even moreso considering it is an August release. High-concept dramas are known to succeed during the holiday season (like The Pursuit of Happyness or The Blind Side), but it is a much rarer occurrence during the summer. The Help also holds the distinction of having spent more days at the top of the box-office in a row than any other movie since The Sixth Sense (even more than Avatar and The Dark Knight) and a total of 33 days so far above $1 million. Even though it has suffered its sharpest decline to date this weekend, I expect it to fully rebound soon and play well throughout September and October and then resurface around the awards season. It’s a performance unlike to be matched by any other in its impressiveness this year. Currently it is on track to $175-180 million, but strong awards attention might push it further.
The Gavin O’Connor-directed sports drama Warrior starring Nick Nolte and Tom Hardy who’ll be playing the main villain in The Dark Knight Rises took in a disappointing $5.6 million from 1,869 locations for a PTA of $3,000. That was enough for the third spot at the box-office, yet can be considered a disappointing opening given the film’s strong reviews. O’Connor has directed another well-liked sports movie in the past, the true-story based Miracle which was a much larger financial success, making over $64 million back in 2004. Warrior’s relative failure is easily explainable, though. Unlike The Fighter which it has often been compared to this 2.5 hours long drama just didn’t have the same kind of an all-star cast. While Tom Hardy might have a bright future ahead of him with starring roles in The Dark Knight Rises and Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy he’s still no Mark Wahlberg or Christian Bale. On top of that, a true boxing story is usually an easier sell than a movie set in the world of mixed martial arts which is still considered more of a niche sport. With a $30 million budget to boast, it’ll have to go a long way to become profitable. The “A” CinemaScore is a good start, but it is questionable that it’ll be able to stay in theatres long enough to develop good legs. Right now I don’t see it making more than $15-18 million.
Drooping two spots to #4, The Debt lost 50.5% of its audiences for a $4.9 million weekend and a running total of $22 million after 12 days. The movie’s adult audiences have also been targeted by Warrior and Contagion this weekend which explains the decline. I expect it to rebound somewhat over the next weekends; however, Drive will take a chunk out of its audiences as well next week. With a budget of $20 million, it is already a success story for Focus Features, though which is having a really good year with Hanna becoming one of their highest-grossers and Jane Eyre as well as Beginners being solid arthouse hits. Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy should continue the streak in December. The Debt looks to finish its run with a solid $35 million, very similar to the total of other Focus’ Labor Day thrillers The American ($35.6 million) and The Constant Gardener ($33.6 million).
Delivering a surprisingly solid hold, Luc Besson-produced action film Colombiana decreased 46.4% this weekend, grossing $4 million in the process and bringing its current cume to $22.8 million after 17 days on release. It actually climbed a spot in the Top 10, going up from #6 to #5. While it’s not another Taken, the Zoe Saldana film still looks to become one of the higher-grossing Besson actioners. It has already topped Unleashed, the first Transporter film and last year’s From Paris with Love and looks set to outgross Transporter 3 and Kiss of the Dragon soon. While the R-rated Drive won’t present much competition to this PG-13 flick, the following weekend’s Abduction will prove to be a direct competitor. Colombiana should top out with $38 million, more than a solid number for this type of film.
Rise of the Planet of the Apes continued its ascent on the yearly top-grossers list as it entered the Top 10 this weekend. The blockbuster reboot made $3.9 million (down 
51%) for the 6th spot of the box-office and a total of $167.8 million. It has passed Kung Fu Panda 2 for #10 of the year. Captain America and Bridesmaids are up next. It can’t be stressed enough how much the film has surpassed the expectations of box-office followers and critics and not only delivered a good opening, but also showed off some impressive legs for an action blockbuster. What is really impressive is that its opening-to-total multiplier has already far surpassed that of Tim Burton’s Planet of the Apes and that despite the film having been released 10 years ago when frontloading hasn’t been nearly as bad as nowadays. With no similar movies coming up for a while, I expect the film’s legs to stabilize again and take its total to $178 million before it leaves the theatres, just short of the last film’s $180 million.
As expected Shark Night 3D’s legs leave a lot to be desired as the film was down 58% from its opening last weekend, making $3.5 million for a $14.8 million total. The drop is very similar to last year’s Piranha 3d’s second-weekend decrease. Shark Night 3D won’t reach Piranha’s $25 million domestic total, though and looks to finish with just around $20 million. With a $25 million budget it doesn’t look to be a major loss for Relativity, but the studio should hope for a similar overseas take to Piranha ($58 million) if the movie should become a financial success.
Interestingly enough, the final three spots of the Top 10 were occupied by the Weinstein Company releases. Dropping all the way from #3 to #8 this weekend, the Timur Bekmabetov produced found footage shocker Apollo 18 dropped a terrible 66.5% for a $2.9 million and a total of $15 million. Still playing at an incredible 3,330 theatres, the movie’s per-theatre-average was a pitiful $875, far lower than any other movie in the Top 12. I expect huge theatre losses over the upcoming weeks and for the movie to leave the theatres with $18 million in its pockets. Given the film’s $5 million budget it still makes it a solid success for the studio.
Down two spots to #9 Weinsteins’ comedy Our Idiot Brother starring Paul Rudd made $2.8 million (down 49.3%) upping it cume to $21.4 million. While the comedy doesn’t come close to Rudd’s major hits like Role Models or I Love You, Man, it did really well for its $5 million budget. I project it to end up with $28 million.
Still benefiting from a lack of family-oriented competition, Spy Kids: All the Time in the World was down 48% this weekend as it grossed $2.5 million for a total of $34.2 million. Even then, the movie still doesn’t look to gross even half of what the lowest-grossing Spy Kids movie has made before ($85.8 million). Add to that the fact that the 3D premium boosted this film’s gross and nine years of inflation and it makes the performance look even more embarrassing. It must be noted, however, that Robert Rodriguez managed to make this movie for an even lower budget than the already cheap other Spy Kids films. At a production cost of $27 million, it is poised to become a success for the studio either way. I see it ending up with $39 million, similar to the $43.6 million that another unnecessary 3D kids film sequel has made last year – Cats and Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore.
The R-rated horror flick Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark dropped another 56.5% for a $2.3 million weekend and the 11th spot of the box-office. Its current total stands at $21.1 million. The Guillermo del Toro-produced film doesn’t look to have much gas left in its tank and should soon vanish from theatres with $24 million.
Sticking around in the Top 12 for another weekend, the WoM hit Crazy, Stupid, Love delivered by far the best hold in the Top 12 as it dipped just 34% for a $2.2 million gross over the three-day frame and a running cume of $78.4 million. The film’s multiplier has already passed 4. It will finish with $85 million.
Three more openers outside of the Top 12 are noteworthy this weekend, though. Placing at #13 and becoming the biggest surprise of the weekend, Kevin Hart: Laugh at My Pain made $2 million from only 97 theatres for an astounding $20,619 per-theatre average. That’s not just the 7th-biggest opening ever for a stand-up comedy concert movie, but also the highest opening PTA ever scored by such a film. It’s just a tremendous start.
In contrast to that, the Adam Sandler-produced and critically lambasted Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star made a horrible $1.45 million from 1,500 theatres for a PTA of just $967 and will finish below $3 million when all is said and done. Yet, it doesn’t take the cake of the worst wide opening this weekend. That dishonor goes to the indie horror feature Creature which inexplicably opened at 1,507 theatres, grossing $331,000 for a PTA of $220. That’s an incredibly bad opening and the 4th-worst ever for a wide release (600+ theatres) and by far the worst one ever for a movie playing at over 1,500 theatres. It also managed the 2nd-worst per-theatre-average ever for a wide opener, topped only by Proud American’s $128.
