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Scottie Predicts (August 12-14)
Rank Name Prediction PTA % Change
1  The Rise of the Planet of the Apes  25.1  6.8k  -54%
2  Final Destination 5  23.7  7.5k  new
3  The Help  19.8  7.8k  new
4  30 Minutes or Less  15.1  5.2k  new
5  The Smurfs  13.5  3.9k  -35%
6  Cowboys and Aliens  7.1  2.1k  -55%
7  Crazy Stupid Love  7.1  2.7k  -41%
8  Glee 3D  7.0  3.4k  new
9  Harry Potter 7 Part II  6.5  2.7k  -48%
10  Captain America  6.4  2.3k  -51%

Need Help reaching your Final Destination. I will GladLEE get you there in 30 Minutes or Less. 4 movies will challenge the Apes and Rise to the top of the charts. Even if they don't, the top 10 will see some incredible depth, something very rare for summer weekends.

Ready to see the fate of your death? Your Final Destination has arrived for the 5th time at 3155 stops. The franchise has seen increases in the opening weekend gross as the series progressed. But this time, audiences are becoming more choosing of 3D films, so maybe this has come at a bad time. The per theater average should be less than the 4th film, which could signify a downward spiral for the franchise like the Saw films after the 5th one. Not only that, the buzz and interest are lower than the previous one, so I see a 7k pta for this.

The Help got off to a head start on Wednesday, where it collected a very good $5.5 million. But where it go from here. Well, being based on a popular book, the Thursday decline will be a tad higher than other Wednesday openers aimed at Adults, maybe in the mid 30% range. The Friday increase should be bigger than usual too, maybe in the 80% to 90% range, because of the African American demographics. That would put the Friday gross in the mid $6 million range, and with an IM of a little over 3. The prediction you see above is what I get from this formula.

Want to see a movie in 30 Minutes or Less. Well, you can't, since it's just over 80 minutes long. All joking aside, the short running time will add on alot of showtimes, but that's the only thing that will get this film from a mediocre performance to a fairly mediocre performance. The buzz is just not there, despite success from Ruben Fleischer's previous movie, Zombieland. Reviews are pretty mixed, and trailers are all too exciting. Playing in 2888 theaters, the pta will barely be over $5k.

Jane Lynch wants you to stay away from this next movie, cause it sucks. Like that helps me in predicting this movie. At first glance, this looks like a derby killer and a major flop, but Fandango sales are surprisingly higher than expected, and reviews are not too bad. Although being a 3D only release can hurt some of it's potential. Still, it should do better than some pessimist think, maybe a mid 3k pta.

Among Holdovers, Apes has great WOM, but has new competition, and the midweek numbers are not encouraging enough to prevent this film from a 50% drop. Smurfs will add theaters, and will have no competition for kids, so a great hold is expected. Cowboys and Aliens won't stabilize too much. Crazy Stupid Love will drop a little more this time due to competition from the Help, hence the huge Wednesday drop. Harry Potter and Captain America will lose theaters, meaning that the drops will be bigger than they should be. And for you Derby trackers, I put a $5.7 million prediction for the Change Up (-58%) due to mediocre WOM and harsh competition. This is the Scottie signing out.

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Total Comments: 1
Karl Schneider
Karl Schneider    Aug 12 2011 4:15pm
Great article!