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Scottie Predicts (June 10 - 12)
Rank Name Prediction Theater Count % Change
1  Super 8  30.4m 3379 new
2  X-men: First Class  25.3m  3692  -54%
3  Hangover Part II  16.3m  3644  -48%
4  Kung Fu Panda 2  15.5m  3929  -35%
5  Pirates of the Caribbean 4  9.7m  3433  -46%
6  Bridesmaids  9.0m  2920  -25%
7 Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer  6.3m  2524  new
8  Midnight in Paris  5.3m  944  +92%
9  Thor  1.9m  1782  -55%
10  Fast Five  1.4m  1325  -56%

To my few readers who read this, I know what you are thinking, where have I been this past two weeks.  Well, due to the finals, I was not able to write full articles in the past two weeks.  Well, it's Summer time (officially with School being out, at least around here it is) and this weekend, Super 8 will try to reel in people.

Unlike the previous summer releases, Super 8 is not based on any material, which makes it one of the most original if a bit unusual summer release this year.  The odd subject matter may appeal to the middle aged audiences who grew up with Super 8 Cameras, but getting young people may be a bit tricky.  Reviews are good, so that helps, and the director and producer are big names, so adults will want to check it out, but now rush to see it.  The IMAX release for this was not needed either, meaning that only hardcore fans, if any, will want to pay the premium to see it with Maximum Immersity.  Crashing it's way into 3379 houses, this film should get a mildly super PTA in the 9k range, putting in the same range as other strange summer releases with big names attached, like A.I..

Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer (no, I was not yelling, that is how the title was typed out) is yet another tween film with light buzz and a silly title.  Buzz it light, probably in the same range as Nancy Drew and Ramona and Beezus, despite being based on children's literature.  Whether the title sounds better with or without it's subtitle, neither will help this film get a PTA higher than 2.5k, putting it on par, if slightly less, then the similar films mentioned.

Midnight in Paris will end up being one of Woody Allen's highest grossing films.  It expands in a semi-wide release today.  The PTA has been holding up well these past few weeks.  Predicting films like these is always tricky.  But if patterns of these type of expansions follow suit, the pta should drop about 70% to just under 6k PTA, making it still solid enough for another expansion.

Among holdovers, X-men will not drop as big as it's predecessors, given it's softer opening and better WOM.  But with Game 6 being on Sunday, it may hurt a bit.  Same for Hangover II and Pirates 4, if not for the Mavs and Heat, they may have had softer declines.  Kung Fu Panda will enjoy a softer drop with no competition for a bit.  Bridesmaid will see an even softer decline than last weekend with Sunday not being deflated this time, and not to mention, this will be the least affected of the bunch, making them cry less and cry-baby Lebron.  Thor and Fast Five have theater counts to big to have stable declines.  Whether Super 8 surprises this weekend, or Lebron will cry for his baby bottle on Sunday, this weekend will not reach the 140.5 million of last year's weekend, making this one of the Bummer Summer weekend.  This is the Scottie signing out.

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Total Comments: 1
Karl Schneider
Karl Schneider    Jun 11 2011 1:52am
Heh, I was wondering where you've been. Good luck on your finals, hope all goes well.