Shiver Me Timbers.  Captain Jack Sparrow Returns to collect some more booty (no not Penelope Cruz you pervs, I mean gold).  Pirates 4 (I am too lazy to type the full title) opens it's treasure in 4155 ships, including a record amount of IMAX's, including theaters that claim to be IMAX's but are only slightly larger than regular screens.  With the bad WOM from the last movie, I see a Shrek 4 effect to some degree.  Reviews are not helping.  Early sales indicate that admissions will be lower than Fast Five.  In usual cases, this leads to a Per Theater Average in the 17k range.  But with IMAX and 3D surcharges, it should be in the low 20k range. 

Among holdovers, Bridesmaids should have the best hold in the top ten.  The IM from Friday was very high for the genre, and the midweek is more stable than usual.  The only thing in the way is Depp's female appeal.  Other than that, I don't see this falling higher than 30%. Thor will lose all of it's Lie Max theaters, so much for stabilizing.  Same goes for Fast Five, as it loses it's true IMAX theaters to Jack.  Priest will lose much of it's 3D screens to Jack (wow, what a Pirate).  Worse, the terrible midweek numbers and mediocre WOM will hurt this film even more.  Rio loses more 3D theaters (but it didn't have much to lose to begin with).  And since Pirates may not appeal to younger kids, it could hold on for one more weekend before the Panda arrives.  Something Borrowed won't stabilize that much.  Jumping the Broom and Water for Elephants may have held on better if not for the theater losses.  Madea is losing more theaters than weight.  The theater drop is way too much for it to stay above 1 million.

Depending on the fate of Jack Swallow, I mean Sparrow, this weekend may or may not exceed last year's performance.  This is the Scottie signing out, and if you decide to have Rum, please drink responsibly or designate a driver.