Rank | Name | Prediction | Theater Count | % Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Thor | 65.3 | 3955 | n/a |
2 | Fast Five | 32.8 | 3662 | -62% |
3 | Something Borrowed | 12.6 | 2904 | n/a |
4 | Jumping the Broom | 9.2 | 2035 | n/a |
5 | Rio | 8.1 | 3258 | -45% |
6 | Water For Elephants | 5.4 | 2614 | -42% |
7 | Madea's Big Happy Family | 4.1 | 1881 | -59% |
8 | Prom | 2.3 | 2730 | -51% |
9 | Hoodwinked Too! | 2.1 | 2505 | -48% |
10 | Soul Surfer | 2.1 | 1781 | -38% |
On paper, the summer season officially begins, but to smart people like us, summer begin last week when Fast Five drove the box office to new height for an April Weekend, and may have stole of the Thor's thunder (pun too obviously as I am about to get sued for plagiarism).
Thor opens the official summer season with a bang in 3955, including alot of IMAX 3D theaters. The marketing and buzz is no different than your typical summer kickoff film, although the Shakespearean elements may deter the dumb teen audience, and the property is not as big as the other comics. Reviews are pretty good though. I see a similar gross to Clash of the Titan with it's historical setting and 3D.
Something Borrowed and Jumping the Broom will both be jumping the Wedding Films bring in big profits bandwagon as they get married in 2904 and 2035 chapels, respectively. In terms of script and concept, Something Borrowed is not something new. Reviews are just about as bad as Kate Hudson's other bride to be pic Bride Wars, so the bad WOM from that pictures will hurt this picture since people will assumed the any romantic comedy with Goldie Hawn's daughter is bound to be bad. Jumping the Broom, unlike Something Borrowed, has an African American cast. Reviews are better than the previous one mentioned, but competition is still a bit competitive as the African American audience came out to see Fast Five with a fury. Was it a bad idea to open two wedding films on the same weekend, with one coming up next weekend? At least the biggest advantage these two films have is that Mother's Day is Sunday (which is why this article is in pink, or at least the closet thing to pink since this color selection is cheap), and these films usually see increases from Saturday, which will add at least a million or two their already mediocre performances. Based on this, the per theater averages should both be in the mid 4k area (similar to Just Wright for the latter film).
Among holdovers, Fast Five has great WOM, but Thor will stealing most of the Lie MAX houses (that's what it gets for stealing the thunder I suppose). Still, with the competition, the drop should be no different from the last installment. Rio doesn't have much competition, but it will lose 3D houses to Thor, so another moderately high drop is assured. Water for Elephants sees new competition for women, although the Mother's Day frame will help this film have one of the lower drops in the top ten. Madea has new competition, and will continue to drop in the pattern as the previous films. Prom is in trouble again. With a low Saturday increase and a harsh Sunday increase, I can't see a drop less than 50%, even with the typical 400% increase on Friday these films get. Hoodwinked Too seems to be followed the daily pattern of Alpha and Omega. Soul Surfer will followed suit like last weekend as well.
This the Scottie signing out, and those who have mother's, make sure you do something with them.