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Scottie Predicts (April 15 - 17)
Rank Name Prediction Theater Count % Change
1  Rio 46.0m  3826 new
2  Scream 4  42.0m  3305  new
3  Hop  10.4m  3607  -51%
4  Soul Surfer  7.8m  2214  -26%
5  Hanna  6.7m  2545  -47%
6  Arthur  6.3m  3276  -48%
7  Insidious  5.0m  2233  -47%
8  Source Code  4.8m  2557  -44%
9  Your Highness  3.6m  2772  -62%
10  Limitless  2.7m  1885  -50%

Finally, a weekend that stat freaks can finally get excited about.  After a long slump, a pair a birds and you're worst nightmare (no, I am not talking about your taxes) arrive this weekend, and should put the top ten significantly ahead of last year.

The last two Macaws on earth will show up in 3826 bird cages all the way in Rio.  The marketing has been nothing short of aggressive, and the reviews are favorable as well.  There are alot of multi booked theater allocations across the country, making this an event film rather than just another animated feature.  The spectacular Worldwide start last weekend will definitely help in it's favor.  Buzz among audiences is pretty good, a bit higher than Horton (another Blue Sky production), which could lead to a slightly higher PTA.  A 12k PTA should do, and with Spring Break coming for next two weeks, looks for big midweek numbers and a strong 17 day total before the summer tent poles arrive.

You can run, but you can't hide from Scream, as he will now chase a new batch of teenagers in 3305 houses in this 4th installment of the horror comedy franchise.  Bringing back some of the original cast along with a younger cast will help bring back some old fans of the series.  The midnights at many places have been sold out, showing that there is some demand for a fourth Scream.  This will also lead to a gaggingly low IM from Friday (which will follow the same footsteps as films like Nightmare on Elm Street and Paranormal Activity 2 and the Saw sequels, which all got IM's of about 2.1).  Like Rio, screen allocations are very big as well.  Reviews are mostly favorable, which should help since the target audience are now adults.  It should get a strong start of about 20 million on Friday, followed by a 2.1 multiplier, bringing it's weekend total too....uh oh, I better run, it's going to get me.......

......Okay I escaped, but not by much.  Now back to the article.  Among Holdovers, Hop sees a direct competitor, but a big drop is ensured.  Hanna will get slight help from Scream being rated R, so the drop won't be too bad.  Ditto for Arthur, which could have easily dropped over 50% with poor WOM.  Soul Surfer should see a low decline, similar to Facing the Giants.  Any movie that gets an A+ cannot drop too much, even with competition.  Insidious had an incredible hold last weekend (which fooled everyone including myself).  But it won't happen again this time, cause there is a new horror film in the mix.  Source Code will drop more than last time with increased demand of the openers.  Your Highness will get hit the most, as not only does it have bad WOM, but it is also the only R-rated holdover in the top ten, which gives it a double whammy.  Limitless has a theater drop too big to withstand.

This is the Scottie, signing out.  Feel free to comment below.....Oh Jesus he's after me again (runs away).

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Total Comments: 2
Rolling Thunder
Rolling Thunder    Apr 15 2011 2:28pm
Always enjoy your articles - by the time Friday comes along, I need a good laugh. lol. Best of luck this weekend, my friend - nice to have something to get excited about again!
Proud Ryu
Proud Ryu    Apr 15 2011 3:15pm
That would be a tremendous hold for Surfer, but I do think it is possible. Hell, if freaking Insidious can do it... With its tropical theme and kid-friendliness Rio might dig into it and Scream take away some teens, but it will be the most interesting hold to watch.

I also do think Hanna will hold better having seen it. Pretty much the same on everything else.