Rank | Name | Prediction | Theater Count | % Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hop | 25.1m | 3616 | -33% |
2 | Arthur | 13.1m | 3276 | new |
3 | Hanna | 10.2m | 2535 | new |
4 | Your Highness | 10.1m | 2769 | new |
5 | Source Code | 9.0m | 2971 | -39% |
6 | Soul Surfer | 7.1m | 2214 | new |
7 | Insidious | 6.4m | 2419 | -52% |
8 | Limitless | 6.0m | 2655 | -35% |
9 | Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules | 5.4m | 2881 | -46% |
10 | The Lincoln Lawyer | 4.0m | 2420 | -35% |
Four openers will try to hop to the top spot, but none of them are expected to break out. I am typing in Red to celebrate the opening game at Angel Stadium, which I will be attending later tonight, so I won't take to long with the article.
Arthur brings his Brand of humor in 3276 houses tonight. Remaking comedies is very tough to do, since most of them fail due to not being fresh. The unfunny trailers are not helping either. Although the marketing has been somewhat aggressive, and the emsemble cast could bring in some people. Still, I don't see a pta higher than 4k.
Hanna may do better than some people expect. Reviews have been great, especially for the acting. BOM polls are showing some promise which means that people are interested in seeing this. Trailers make it look good, although the marketing is on the light side. Still, a mid to high 4k pta would be good for this type of film.
Your Highness, opening in 2769 castles, has alot going against it. Comedy taking place in the past is tricky to sell to younger audience, who are turned off by films with midevil settings. The trailers are unfunny as well, and the R-rated will not help since this film is aiming low. Beside, any comedy with drugs is almost a tough sell. The only redeeming factor is Portmania, which will help this film get into the high 3k range.
Soul Surfer, surfing it's way in 2214 beach houses, has potential to be a sleeper, but the buzz to reach to tween audiences is not strong enough. Mixed reviews will not help either to picky filmgoers. Besides football, sports dramas are not easy to sell, especially not surfing, which only appeals to people on the coast. Although the Christian elements will help sell this in the midwest, which means that the pta will be in the 3k range. Despite the low opening, the WOM could be good enough for low declines making it a moderate hit, so the opening shouldn't look too bad.
Among holdovers, no competition means low decline for Hop. Source Code may have a B grade, but that didn't hurt other well reviewed thrillers, since most of the graders come from Friday night audience, who are lower intellectually. This being said, the decline will be just below 40%. Limitless and Lincoln Lawyer will continue to green the spring, while Insidious will drop it's typical horror film drop. Rodrick will follow the pattern of the last one. This is the Scottie signing out, now off to the Big A with me.