Rank | Name | Prediction | Theater Count | % Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Battle: Los Angeles | $36.4m | 3417 | new |
2 | Rango | $22.1m | 3923 | -42% |
3 | Red Riding Hood | $17.0m | 3030 | new |
4 | Mars Needs Moms | $15.0m | 3117 | new |
5 | The Adjustment Bureau | $11.2m | 2846 | -47% |
6 | Hall Pass | $5.6m | 2555 | -37% |
7 | Beastly | $4.3m | 1959 | -56% |
8 | Just Go With It | $3.7m | 2398 | -42% |
9 |
The King's Speech |
$3.6m | 1768 | -42% |
10 | Gnomeo and Juliet | $3.5m | 2385 | -52% |
Prediction above for span between 3/11/2000 and 3/13/2000
Battle LA: Code Red. The color red has something to do with the three openers (LA Angels = red, Red Riding Hood = red, and Mars = red planet). These three openers hope to get the box office out of the red.
Los Angeles will do Battle in 3417 theaters. Alien movies have been doing well lately, and the trend of camcorder like footage is a hot trend. Battle LA will try to jump this bandwagon. The release pattern is very aggressive, with some theaters giving it 3 screens (I see a couple of 4 screen theaters). The midnight shows (as I am writing this) are selling out in the LA area, meaning that it will gangbusters in that market. I am not sure how this will carry over with other markets. It will certainly do better than Skyline. Although BOM are close to District 9, the weaker reviews signifies that it won't hit the PTA of the 2009 sleeper. Instead, it will settle for a $10.5k PTA.
Red Riding Hood to over the meadow and through the woods to 3030 houses she goes. This one is a very tricky one to predict, cause it can do anything between Beastly and the Underworld series. Werewolves are a draw, but literally adaptations gone dark can be sometimes tricky to sell to picky teens. Buzz is stronger than Beastly, but not strong enough. I gave it a mid $5k PTA for this.
Mars Needs Moms and families to flock to one of the 3117 theaters in order to break even. The Disney 3D pic has been aggressively marketing the movie's IMAX and Real D processes, but it has many things going against it. First off, SCI-FI and Animation are never a good combination (look at Titan AE, Treasure Planet, Planet 51, etc). There have been exceptions like Monsters vs. Aliens and Megamind, but those films emphasized the comedy elements, and had A-listers headlining it, while this one does neither. Reviews are mixed as well, which may hurt some of the adults viewer who will feel that this is not worth paying the surcharge for. With the IMAX, the PTA should only be slightly better than Planet 51.
Among holdovers, Rango will not be affected much by Mars, but the mediocre WOM will hurt it a bit. Adjustment Bureau will drop like normal adult thrillers with decent but not great WOM, and it will have to do Battle with LA. Hall Pass will hold on to it's comedy audience, although the bigger theater drop means a slightly larger drop. Beastly will take a hit from Riding Hood. The Wednesday drop of -30% is a big ouch, as it is emulating the pattern of Remember Me, which dropped harshly as well. Just Go With It, well, like Hall Pass, bigger theater drop = slightly larger drop. King's Speech will see the biggest decline of it's run, cause the Oscars are over, and the weekend after the weekend after the Oscars tends to see big drops for the Best Picture winners, although King's Speech will not drop over 50% like the last few did cause it is still wide and will still hold on to some of it's audiences. Gnomeo will lose 3D theaters, which signals that it will drop bigger than it dropped last weekend.
Whether this weekend will reverse the trend, we won't know. This is the Scottie signing out. Feel free to comment below.