Prediction above for span between 3/4/2011 and 3/6/2011

After one lousy January and a much better but still not good enough February, 4 new openers will March in theaters to begin the new month.  One is expected to be the winner, and the other three were all delayed at some point.

After playing John (Public Enemies), George (Blow), and will soon play Paul (The Rum Diary), Johnny Depp will also come full circle by playing Rango.  He will accidentally wind up in 3917 theaters this weekend.  Depp is a draw, and the adds are taking full advantage of this.  Reviews are anything but Dirt, which is a good thing, and the marketing and theater allocations have been very aggressive.  However, there are a few minor troubles with this film.  The Nickelodeon label is usually associated with kids fare, but this film may be too mature and sophisticated for the younger set.  Teenagers will check it out though, but the lack of female appeal (unless you count Depp fans) due to the subgenre will keep this from attracting a broader audience.  BOM polls may be higher than most animated films, but it may be a bit skewed due to the demographics being a lot older.  Still, it will handily win the weekend, with a PTA in the 5-digit territory.

Originally scheduled for a summer release, the Bureau made a slight Adjustment to the release date as it now leaps into the Spring in 2840 offices.  Matt Damon has had a mixed record with thrillers outside of Bourne, with per theater averages in the 3k - 5k ranges.  This should perform better with generally good reviews, more aggressive theater allocations (with some theaters triple booking the movie), and ballerinas.  The marketing may seem a bit misleading, but BOM polls have been better than recent sub par thrillers.  A 7k PTA should do it.

Like the previously mentioned film, Beastly was also originally scheduled in the summer.  Now, it falls in love in 1952 theaters.  CBS has stumbled with almost every release so far, mainly because production values look like made for TV movies.  This one is no different.  Vanessa Hudgens star value is fading big time, and Alex Pettyfer won't help much either.  BOM polls are similar to Remember Me (and no I don't), which means that this Beauty and the Beast knockoff should also have a PTA in the 3k range.

Unlike the other two openers, Take Me Home Tonight was delayed for 5 years!!!  Since it's not in my top ten chart, this means that audiences will stay home instead of the going to one of the 2003 cinemas playing this.  The trouble began after poor test screenings caused Universal to shelve the project.  Originally title Kids in America (not to be confused with the 2005 film which nobody remembers at all), Relativity acquired the film after acquiring Rogue pictures (Universal's indy unit) in 2009.  Retitled, it arrives with almost no publicity.  Reviews are mixed, the subject matter is very tough to sell, and BOM polls are too similar to films like Sex Drive.  This means that the film should only gross 3 million dollars (giving it a PTA of just under 1.5k).

Among Holdovers, after winning Best Picture, the King's Speech won't increase that much since it is already a big enough hit, and no expansion was given.  Gnomeo has slight competition from Rango, although the it still has 3D to itself, and it skew younger, meaning that the drop shouldn't be too bad.  Unknown has competition from TAB, though a better Sunday will soften the blow.  Hall Pass should follow Heartbreak Kid's pattern.  Just Go With It will have a softer decline with a much better Sunday.  I Am Number 4 will have IMAX to itself for only last time, but has slight competition this time around.  After a soft drop last weekend, Justin Bieber should see a much harsher decline due to the one week only bait and switch of last weekend (which affected Hannah Montana and Jonas), and the theater loss.

 This is the Scottie signing out!