Prediction above for span between 2/18/2011 and 2/21/2011

 After several weekends of falling behind pace of last year, a trio of films, one a sequel without a number in the title, one with a number in the title that is not a sequel, and one that wants to call itself a sequel but is not, will try to reverse this trend by becoming the first weekend of the year to exceed last years total.

I Am Number 4 (which is not only describes the Seattle Mariner's ranking in the AL West) opens in 788.5 times the amount of theaters as the title (3154 theater in case you can't do the math).  Unlike most Sci-fi action movies, this one has appeal to the female demographics, particularly for the casting of real life couple, Alex Pettyfer and Dianna Agron.  The IMAX will help boost it's gross.  Reviews are not on the positive side, but it won't matter much, especially if Michael Bay is your producer.  The stylish marketing is helping bringing awareness for those who don't know the property.  The interest polls are good, but not extraordinary (comparible to Eagle Eye and Jumper, to some degree).  Expect the per theater average to be in the mid $8k range for the 3-day portion, good enough to call itself Number 1.

The Unknown will be known once it opens in 3043 theaters today.  The movie is trying to capitalize on the success of The Taken, by advertising it like a sequel, even though it is clearly not (Taken was Fox property, and Unknown is WB property).  Instead of losing his daughter, Liam Neeson is now losing his identidy in this film.  The plot itself follows more closely to the Bourne films rather than the Taken.  But whatever the similarities are, the marketing and awareness are still effective nevertheless.  Interest polls are not at the levels of the other films mention, but still solid.  Reviews are mixed, meaning that it won't reach the levels of the 2009 sleeper hit.  Instead, it will settle for a more solid per theater average in the mid $6k for the 3-day portion.

Big Mommas:  Like Father Like Son follows the pattern of Whole Ten Yards and Analyze That as sequels nobody asked for.  The WOM was very mixed for the second film in the series, making this third installment unnecessary.  A Rotton Tomatoes score of 0% (at press time) is not doing any favors, signalling that it could be one of the top contenders for the Razzies for next year.  Aside from that, the trailers are too mediocre to grab interest.  However, there is one redeeming factor, it is being marketed very heavily in the Urban markets, meaning that business will be great in those areas, and since there has been nothing for them in a while, they will want to check it out.  In other markets, it will be only so-so, as market is soft in the other markets.  Playing in 2821 houses, the per theater average will be just above $5k for the 3-day portion, thanks in due to the urban markets.

Among holdovers, kids pics usually see either slight increases for slight decreases when President's Day weekend is the sophmore weekend.  Gnomeo and Juliet will be no exception.  With Justin Bieber set to fall apart, the Disney pic will have a more open market for kids and families.  Just Go With It will have the usual Sandler 50%+ decline for the Friday to Friday portion.  But with a bigger IM, and the extra Monday, the 4-day drop will be in the high 30% range.  Justin Bieber should follow the pattern of the Jonas Brothers concert (since the demos are very alike, and the daily numbers seem to be following the pattern of the other JB crew), expect a Friday decline in the 80% range, with a much bigger IM.  King's Speech will drop in the same rate as the previous weekends, but with a bigger Sunday and the extra day, expect a slight increase overall.  The Roommate has a direct competitor for the demographics of Number 4, but being a different genre, it won't hurt it too much.  It will see a harsher mid 40% decline from Friday to Friday.  With it's theater drop, No Strings attached will too see a harsher Friday to Friday drop.  The Eagle not only suffers from direct competitors, but the WOM is pretty bad, signifying a high 50% Friday to Friday drop, and a quick exit from theaters very soon.

This is the Scottie signing off.